Why We Don’t Make Forecasts

How many times did the Wall Street consensus predict a market drop? "A spectacular zero."
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The Normal

Normal is the market going up and down in a manner that can be unnerving over short-term periods.
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Groundhog Day

Unfortunately, research suggests that the wizards of Wall Street often have about as much predictive power as the Wizard of Oz and as much success in predicting the future as groundhogs.
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Rock Science

The best ideas often from keep-it-simple “rock science”, not rocket science. 
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No Crystal Balls – Just Peace Of Mind

Market prognosticators are never in doubt, but often wrong.
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If We Had A Chief Economist We Would Have to Pay Them

And if we paid someone, we'd be compelled to listen to them.
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